- Signals and Forecasts: Where the Legal Line Is Drawn
- What May Change in Russia’s Crypto Market This Year Under the Central Bank’s Plan
- Not a New Problem: Pump-and-Dump Schemes and Anonymity
- How New Regulation Could Affect the Market
Earlier this week, it became known that Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) had shut down the organizers of three Telegram channels allegedly involved in “systematic manipulation of the Russian stock market.” These investment-focused channels reportedly distributed investment recommendations.
According to authorities, the channels published calls to buy or sell securities, influencing price movements. The individuals involved then used these artificially influenced prices to execute trades for profit. The FSB reported that the organizers carried out more than 55,000 illegal transactions.
Legal experts commented on whether cryptocurrency channel administrators should be concerned about similar risks today—and what may change once crypto regulation is introduced.
Signals and Forecasts: Where the Line Is Drawn
It’s important to understand that the issue isn’t running a crypto channel itself, but rather channels that distribute trading “signals” and price forecasts, explained Denis Polyakov, Head of Digital Economy Practice at GMT Legal. According to him, such activities may be classified either as market manipulation (in the case of signals) or unlicensed investment advisory services (in the case of forecasts).
“If a channel doesn’t publish trading signals and only shares crypto news or product updates, its activity remains legal.”—Denis Polyakov
Until crypto regulation is formally introduced—expected in Russia this summer—cryptocurrency channels are not directly covered by existing market-manipulation laws. However, this could change once regulation comes into force.
What May Change in Russia’s Crypto Market This Year Under the Central Bank’s Plan
Russia is expected to introduce comprehensive cryptocurrency regulation in 2024. Lawyers say that once this happens, enforcement authorities may begin treating cryptocurrencies as financial instruments. That would bring them under Article 185.3 of the Criminal Code, which covers market manipulation.
“With regulation in place, law enforcement may begin classifying cryptocurrencies as financial instruments subject to this article of the Criminal Code. Crypto channel administrators should carefully verify any information they publish. Otherwise, they may face criminal liability. The maximum penalty under Article 185.3 is seven years in prison.”—Beslan Utegushev, Managing Partner at UKAM Law Firm.
Not a New Problem: Pump-and-Dump Schemes and Anonymity
In early April, Kirill Pronin, Director of Financial Market Infrastructure at the Bank of Russia, said regulators were investigating several influencers suspected of stock market manipulation. He described a common manipulation scheme known as pump-and-dump:
“Unfortunately, we’re seeing cases where a Telegram channel author launches a news item that may have nothing to do with reality. Before publishing claims that a stock will rise—often with a ‘rocket’ emoji—the author quietly buys the asset minutes or hours beforehand.”—Kirill Pronin
After that, subscribers begin buying the asset, pushing its price higher. The channel owner then sells and locks in profits. Pronin also noted that regulators are actively working to identify anonymous Telegram channel operators engaging in illegal practices. In some cases, investigators are able to uncover both the authors and their information sources.
How New Regulation Could Affect the Market
Pump-and-dump schemes are not new to the crypto market, according to Elizaveta Lobuteva, a lawyer at White Stone. She pointed to a 2018 study that identified more than 3,500 pump signals on Telegram and another 1,000 on Discord in just six months.
New regulation is expected to increase market transparency and make it easier to detect such schemes. As trading activity shifts toward licensed intermediaries, regulators will gain better visibility into the relationship between public signals and actual trading behavior.
“For channel administrators, this isn’t so much a new risk as a signal that illegal practices will become easier to detect and prove.”—Elizaveta Lobuteva.
Conclusion
With cryptocurrency regulation coming to Russia, crypto channel authors and signal sellers may face new risks. What once existed in a regulatory gray area—publishing trading signals and forecasts—could soon be classified as market manipulation or unlicensed investment advice.
This could result not only in channel bans but also in criminal prosecution, including penalties of up to seven years in prison.
Channel administrators should carefully verify the information they publish and avoid pump-and-dump schemes to stay off regulators’ radar. As transparency increases and anonymity declines, only projects operating openly and ethically are likely to survive in the evolving crypto market.
