- Great achievements are expected from Trump
- How reasonable will regulation be?
- How significant is the U.S. influence on the crypto market
Trump’s election victory is likely to have a positive effect on cryptocurrency, experts believe. However, is there a chance that the trend could reverse?
Great achievements are expected from Trump
The election results increase the chances of passing legislation on the structure of the digital asset market, which could finally lead to the adoption of a law on stablecoin payments. Republicans will hold the majority in the Senate and likely in the House of Representatives. Trump may appoint a pro-crypto Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The future of cryptocurrency in the U.S. is still unclear, but statements and expectations indicate a possible softening of the administration’s stance on cryptocurrency.
“I believe a second victory for Donald Trump in the U.S. elections will be a defining moment for the crypto industry, not only in the U.S. but globally,” said Boris Borer-Bilowitzki, CEO of Concordium, a layer-one blockchain with offices in the UK and Europe. “I expect him to achieve this by easing the approach to crypto regulation and ensuring that bureaucratic policies do not slow down the development of American businesses working with cryptocurrencies and digital assets.”
“The next 4–6 years could be very favorable for the digital asset sector,” stated Chiente Hsu, co-founder of ALEXGO, a Bitcoin bridge. “We can expect an increase in cryptocurrency-focused ETFs and derivatives, as well as a likely reduction in the number of lawsuits filed by regulators against the crypto industry.”
How reasonable will regulation be?
The elected president has promised to make the United States the “crypto capital of the world,” suggesting a virtually cloudless future for cryptocurrency in the U.S. However, concerns remain. Will the second Trump administration “create rules and policies that encourage technological development in a way that leads to useful innovations?” asked Timothy Massad, former chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and now a research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
Or, conversely, will the new administration set rules that only drive up token prices, enriching founders while leaving unsophisticated retail investors with nothing — a kind of second initial coin offering (ICO) bubble?
The newly elected president doesn’t pay much attention to policy details, Massad noted, and some suggest that he may reverse his stance on cryptocurrency and take a course contrary to his promises.
Will Trump fire Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler on the first day of his new administration, as he promised? That might not be so simple. The SEC is an independent federal agency, and its board members serve five-year terms. They can only be dismissed by the president for inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance.
According to Massad, Trump could immediately appoint an existing commissioner to lead the agency. Two possible candidates would be Hester Peirce or Mark Uyeda.
How significant is the U.S. influence on the crypto market
How much weight does the U.S. carry in the crypto field, and how strongly can it impact the future of cryptocurrency and blockchain? According to users, the U.S. is only one of 151 countries included in a recent survey on cryptocurrency adoption by Chainalysis.
Experts, however, see things differently.
“The U.S. still has the most significant influence on cryptocurrency trading,” said Carol Alexander, a professor of finance at the University of Sussex in the UK. “This is evident in the daily fluctuations of cryptocurrency trading volumes, which resemble traditional markets like the stock market, with peak volumes reached in the first few hours of trading in New York, even on Binance,” she said.
“Trump’s victory is very beneficial for cryptocurrencies, as he repeatedly expressed support for them during his campaign,” said Bobby Ong, co-founder and COO of CoinGecko. “Many American crypto companies also lobbied for Donald Trump’s interests, so hopefully this will positively impact the crypto industry in the coming years.”
Borer-Bilowitzki even suggested that Trump might view cryptocurrency as a matter of geopolitical importance, explaining, “Let’s also not forget Trump’s views on American adversaries like China; without a doubt, he’ll want to outpace Chinese crypto companies by making America the leader in this sector.”
Many Democrats, however, believe the second Trump administration is a leap into dangerous uncertainty. Historian Jon Meacham, in an article published on November 5 in the New York Times, warned that it could be “an invitation to chaos.”
“There is a lot of uncertainty about the policies Trump will pursue,” said Massad. “But whatever happens, the rule of law must be upheld. This is crucial for any business, as well as for the crypto industry,” he concluded. Based on such statements, it can be concluded that the future of cryptocurrency in the U.S. remains quite unclear, despite Donald Trump’s apparent support.
